The Green Bay Packers (8-3) won a close game against the Minnesota Vikings. On the road this season, the Packers have played more ordinary than at home. They still play well, but unlike at home where they are virtually unbeatable, on the road they are above average at best. Luckily for Aaron Rodgers and Company, this week against the New England Patriots, they will have home field advantage.

The New England Patriots (9-2) dominated the Detroit Lions 34-9 in week 12. Against the Lions defensive-front, the Patriots opted to throw and not run it into the teeth of the Lions defense. Despite the Lions’ superb run-defense, the Patriots and Legarrette Blount had two rushing touchdowns. It was an all around strong game for the Patriots’ offense, but it was the defense that really shined. If the Patriots are to pull off the upset in the raucous confines of Lambeau Field, then the Patriots’ secondary will have to find an answer to Jordy Nelson and the rest of the Packers’ receivers.

Packers Vs Patriots Week 13 Odds

Here are the odds from Betonline.ag

Patriots +3 (+105)
Packers -3 (-125)

Patriots (+150)
Packers (-170)

Over/Under 58

Team Breakdowns

Packers: No one in the Packers’ receiving core has played better than Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Both receivers are on track for ridiculous numbers this season and play especially well at home. Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP caliber season and has yet to look human this season. If the Packers are to win this Sunday, they will need to continue spreading around the ball. So many of Jordy Nelsons’ long touchdown catches have looked exactly the same and this week the Patriots will look to limit Nelsons impact. To compensate, the Packers will need to run the ball and throw to the tight-ends more. If the Packers can transition their offense from attacking the outside to more in-between the hash-marks, then the Packers offense will handle the Patriots secondary. The Packers will need a defensive effort to stop the Patriots offense. If the Packers can get pressure up the middle it will limit Brady’s time in the pocket. When Brady has to rush his throws, he makes mistakes. If the Packers can force Brady to turn the ball over, then they will have the advantage.

Patriots: The Patriots defense will face its toughest challenge of the season. The Patriots’ secondary has gone up against a number of quality opponents, but nothing that matches the skill and physicality of the Green Bay receivers. Jordy Nelson is nearly unstoppable at home and Belichick will look to limit his impact. Nelson could either have Revis on him in man-to-man coverage or he will face Brandon Browner with safety help over the top. If the Patriots do elect to double Nelson, then Randall Cobb will face one-on-one coverage from Revis. This strategy has worked against some of the best receivers in the league. Belichick will almost certainly dare the Packers to run the ball. Expect the Patriots to direct the Packers offense away from the outside. If Belichick can eliminate Aaron Rodgers outside-receivers, then the Patriots will have the advantage.

Free Pick

This game is a potential Superbowl match-up. Both the Packers and the Patriots are playing at such a high level. The Packers’ home field advantage gives them the slight edge, but on neutral territory the Patriots defense takes them to another level. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have brought a level of skill and an aggressive edge to the rest of the defense that is infectious. The Packers offense can go toe-to-toe with the Patriots offense, but the Patriots defense stands on the shoulders of giants next to the Packers defense. In the end, the Patriots defense will prove too powerful. Expect Belichick and the Patriots to stifle Jordy Nelson and pull off the upset.

New England Patriots 43 Green Bay Packers 28

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